Full Analysis: The Youth Vote in 2016
CIRCLE’s in-depth look young voters in 2016 offers a breakdown of young people’s support for each major candidate and for the political parties they represent. We also consider the long-term implications, for both Democrats and Republicans, of a youth electorate that is increasingly loathe to identify strongly with either major party.
Major findings include:
- Our analysis suggests that young people voted at a similar rate to 2012 – around 50%. In 11 battleground states, on aggregate, 55% of youth turned out to vote.
- President-elect Trump lost the youth vote overall by 55% to 37%, but he garnered support from some segments of the youth electorate: Whites, evangelicals, and young people in rural areas.
- Moderates, Independents, and other young people who eschew ideological extremes and strong party identification are a rising force in the youth electorate.
Read more, and find all of the related data and analysis at the CIRCLE 2016 Election Center.
CIRCLE Talks Millennial Voters at special Brookings Institution Event
On November 17, CIRCLE joined with the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., to host “The Millennial Vote in 2016: What Happened and What’s Next?”
We shared our comprehensive data on the role young people played in the most recent general election, and talked with organizers and journalists about strategies for youth political engagement going forward. The event was moderated by CIRCLE’s founding director William Galston, Chair of Governance Studies at Brookings. Carmen Berkley of the AFL-CIO and Jane Coaston of MTV News served as panelists.
Read more and see full video of the event here.
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More White Men and College Grads in Youth Electorate
Our analysis of the national exit poll suggests that the 2016 youth electorate had similar levels of racial and ethnic diversity as the 2008 and 2012 youth electorates.
At the same time, the 2016 youth electorate had a higher percentage of youth with at least some college education than in those two previous elections. Finally, young white men made up a larger proportion of the white youth electorate than young white women, which had not been the case in recent elections.
CIRCLE in the News
– Roll Call: “Millennials Ditching Party ID, Post-Election Analysis Shows“
– Christian Science Monitor: “Teaching civics in an age of Trump“
– NBC News: “Do High School Walkouts Suggest Generational Resistance to Trump?“
Vanity Fair: “Millennials for Trump? Twenty-somethings in Battleground States Ponder their New Reality“
– The Atlantic: “Dissecting the Youth Vote“